The Miami Dolphins kept their slim playoff hopes alive on Sunday with a 29-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers.
For those true believers, there’s still a path for the Fins to do the unthinkable and tiptoe their way through a narrow path to the postseason. Here’s what it will take for Mike McDaniel’s squad to reach the playoffs for the third straight season.
Dolphins must take care of their own business
First, it’s obviously going to take Miami doing its part over the next two weekends before anything else matters.
The Dolphins head up to Cleveland this weekend to take on the reeling Browns in what will surely be a frigid setting in Northeast Ohio. Should Miami take care of business there, they finish with another winnable game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium.
The Dolphins should be favorites in both games (they are currently 6.5-point favorites over the Browns), so there’s certainly hope there that Miami can get to 9-8.
Miami needs a major upset involving the Colts
The Dolphins’ 16-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts back in Week 7 is likely going to be the game that will cost the Dolphins if they indeed miss the playoffs. If Indy finishes tied with Miami, they will hold the tiebreaker in pretty much every scenario. In short, Indy has to lose.
That might be the toughest part of this whole equation, given the Colts’ remaining schedule. Indy goes to the New York Giants on Sunday, perhaps the worst team in the league right now, and they finish with the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, one of the other worst teams in the league. One of those teams will have to spring an upset over the next two weeks.
Miami needs either the Broncos or Chargers to lose out
If that wasn’t unlikely enough, Miami needs Denver or Los Angeles to hit a wall the last two weeks. Both are at nine wins right now, and Miami would win a tiebreaker based on conference record over either one at 9-8.
Denver travels to Cincinnati and finishes with Kansas City the last week. The concern there is Kansas City already having clinched the #1 overall seed this weekend and having nothing to play for in its final week. Kansas City losing at the Steelers on Christmas Day would give the Chiefs incentive to try to beat the Broncos in Week 18.
Los Angeles finishes on the road at New England and at Las Vegas. Those….are two pretty poor teams, but the Pats at least just gave Buffalo a fight on Sunday, and the Chargers don’t have the best recent history of winning important games. This is probably the longer shot of the two, but they’re at least road games.