MIAMI GARDENS — The Miami Dolphins’ 2024 schedule is the easiest in the NFL.
And after an overtime defeat of the Jets, Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill still have playoff hope.
The Dolphins beat the Jets, 32-26, to improve to 6-7.
The Miami Dolphins are even with the Colts (6-7) and 2 games behind the Broncos (8-5) in AFC Playoff Hunt.
The Dolphins probably need to win their final four games to make the playoffs. They’re 3-point underdogs at the Texans on Sunday.
The 49ers’ loss of Christian McCaffrey to a possible season-ending knee injury could be a factor in a few weeks.
Miami’s best path may be to win out and have Denver lose two more games.
Miami Dolphins schedule: It’s not very difficult
The Dolphins have the sixth-easiest remaining schedule based on opponent winning percentage.
But all opponents on Miami’s 17-game schedule have a current win percentage of .421, worst in the league.
That’s just one more reason a playoffs miss would be so disappointing.
Here is our game-by-game prediction and record following the game:
at Texans (8-5) LOSS — Dolphins fall to 6-8
49ers (6-7) WIN — Dolphins improve to 7-8
at Browns (3-10) WIN — Dolphins improve to 8-8
at Jets (3-10) WIN — Dolphins finish at 9-8
Would the Dolphins make the playoffs at 10-7 or 9-8?
Odds are against it making it at 9-8.
In the last three seasons, teams finishing 9-8 made the playoffs four times and missed it nine times.
That’s 31 percent.
Of course, two years ago, Miami went 9-8 and made the playoffs under Mike McDaniel.
Three years ago, Miami went 9-8 and missed the playoffs under Brian Flores.
According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, if the Dolphins were to go 3-1, losing at the Texans, they would have a 22 percent chance to make the playoffs.
So, they would likely not make it.
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Dolphins, at 10-7, likely make NFL Playoffs
The odds are much better at 10-7.
In the last three seasons, all eight teams to finish 10-7 made the playoffs.
That’s a 100 percent success rate.
According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, if the Dolphins were to go 4-0, they would have a 90 percent chance to make the playoffs.
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What are the Dolphins’ odds to make NFL playoffs?
According to modeling by The Athletic, the Dolphins currently have only a 16 percent chance to make the playoffs.
They say Miami has only a 36 percent chance to defeat the Texans on Sunday.
But they give Miami at 51 percent chance (San Francisco), 53 percent chance (at Cleveland) and 55 percent chance (at Jets) in each of the final three games.
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